Polymarket Prepares Japan Lobbying Effort, Targeting 2030 Approval — Prediction Market Regulation Becomes the Core of Its Asia Strategy

The Report and Local Leadership

Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported on May 22, 2026, that Polymarket has begun preparations to lobby the Japanese government for authorization to operate prediction markets, targeting approval by 2030. Mike Eidlin, head of Japan at Jupiter — a crypto project in the Solana ecosystem — is leading Polymarket's Japan efforts. Notably, Jupiter's prediction market API aggregates liquidity from Polymarket and Kalshi, enabling Solana-based applications to embed prediction market trading functions. Ahead of the official announcement, on April 29, 2026, crypto influencer "Zen | Zenryoku-san," with roughly 53,000 followers, migrated his account to operate as the official "Polymarket Japan" handle, signaling that brand-building in Japan is already underway.

Platform Scale and Japan Market Constraints

Polymarket is a prediction market platform that lets users take positions — primarily using stablecoins and other crypto assets — on outcomes of future events including elections, sports, economic indicators, crypto, and corporate events. In March 2026, the platform surpassed USD 10 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time, with April recording approximately USD 10.3 billion. Japan, however, currently sits on Polymarket's geographic restriction list under "frontend UI restrictions" and is not officially supported. In the U.S., Polymarket operates "Polymarket US" through QCX, a CFTC-registered designated contract market it acquired in 2025, while the international version runs as a separate platform outside CFTC jurisdiction — a deliberate two-tier structure.

Regulatory Issues and Geopolitical Timing

The central regulatory question is whether prediction markets constitute gambling under Japan's Penal Code. Polymarket is expected to lobby Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) to classify prediction market contracts as regulated derivatives — a new product category — rather than as gambling. The four-year timeline reflects a realistic acknowledgment of Japan's meticulous regulatory process. The strategic backdrop is significant: Polymarket is restricted or blocked in over 30 countries, and Argentina ordered a nationwide block in March 2026. As U.S. regulatory pressure mounts, Japan's importance as a strategic alternative market grows. In 2025, Polymarket signed a strategic investment agreement of up to USD 2 billion with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of NYSE, with plans to distribute event probability data to institutional investors.

[Business Development Insights]

1. The "Gambling vs. Derivatives" Classification Will Determine the Fate of Prediction Market Businesses in Japan: Polymarket's success in Japan hinges on whether prediction market contracts can be classified as derivatives under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This is not merely a prediction-market-specific issue — it directly connects to the broader regulatory design for crypto-linked derivatives. For Japanese Web3 operators, law firms, and regulatory consultants, Polymarket's approach will serve as a key case study in regulatory lobbying.
2. The Arrival of Long-Term Lobbying Strategy from Global Web3 Companies: The three-layered approach — a nearly five-year approval timeline, the appointment of a local representative, and pre-launch awareness building via influencers — is qualitatively different from how crypto exchanges previously entered Japan. Other global Web3 companies are likely to adopt similar approaches, creating opportunities for service providers offering local partner introductions, policy dialogue support, and regulatory technology.
3. "Prediction Market Data" Emerges as a New Institutional Data Product: ICE's stated intent to distribute Polymarket's event probability data to institutional investors is highly significant. Prediction markets are evolving beyond a B2C service into infrastructure that generates probability data for elections, economic events, and corporate developments. For the financial data industry, research firms, and media organizations, this opens substantial room for new service development leveraging prediction market data.

[Sources]

• NewEconomy, "Polymarket Reportedly Preparing Lobbying Effort for Japan Market Approval" (May 22, 2026) https://www.neweconomy.jp/posts/575756
• Bloomberg, "Polymarket Is Said to Seek Japan Prediction Market Approval" (May 22, 2026) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-22/polymarket-is-said-to-seek-japan-market-approval-in-global-push
• The Japan Times, "Polymarket is said to seek Japan market approval in global push" https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/05/22/companies/polymarket-japan-prediction-markets/
• CoinDesk, "Polymarket aims for prediction market approval in Japan by 2030" https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/05/22/polymarket-aims-for-prediction-market-approval-in-japan-by-2030
• The Block, "Polymarket eyes Japan market entry, appoints regional representative: Bloomberg" https://www.theblock.co/post/402309/polymarket-japan-market-entry
• BeInCrypto, "Polymarket Reportedly Targets Tokyo Approval by 2030 in Japan Lobbying Effort" https://beincrypto.com/polymarket-japan-approval-2030/
• Crypto Briefing, "Polymarket targets Japan market entry, seeks regulatory approval by 2030" https://cryptobriefing.com/polymarket-japan-market-entry-2030/