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2026年08月19日

HYPE Hit an All-Time High on a Trump Remark — But Hyperliquid's Revenue Had Been Falling for Four Straight Quarters

トランプ発言でHYPEが最高値更新──だがハイパーリキッドの収益は4四半期連続で減っていた

What Was Said, and What It Does Not Mean

Speaking on August 19 at a White House meeting of crypto and technology executives and top regulators, Trump said he understood that Mike was also working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States in a fully compliant and legal fashion. "Mike" is understood to refer to Michael Selig, Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. SEC Chair Paul Atkins also attended, alongside executives from Coinbase, Ripple and Nasdaq.

This was neither a formal decision nor regulatory approval. No method or timing was mentioned. Even so, the market reaction was violent: CoinGecko data put HYPE at $69.38 as of 10:00 Japan time on August 20, up 18.3% over 24 hours. Shares in Nasdaq-listed Hyperliquid Strategies rose, while CME and Cboe shares fell. By August 22, HYPE had reached an all-time high of $82.43. What the market priced in was access to the world's largest and deepest derivatives market.

Six Months Built Around One Regulator

The remark did not come out of nowhere. Selig was sworn in as the 16th CFTC Chairman on December 22, 2025. He previously served as chief counsel of the SEC's Crypto Task Force, and before that practised as a corporate lawyer for crypto firms and prediction markets. He moved quickly: on May 29 the CFTC permitted a CFTC-registered exchange to list a true bitcoin perpetual contract, the first time perpetual futures were brought inside the US regulatory perimeter.

That approval triggered open conflict with incumbent exchanges. On May 15, Bloomberg reported that CME Group and ICE had lobbied the CFTC and lawmakers to scrutinise Hyperliquid's round-the-clock onchain crude oil perpetuals, citing risks of market manipulation, sanctions evasion and distortion of oil benchmark prices. On June 18, CME sued the CFTC and Selig, arguing that under Dodd-Frank, contracts carrying a funding rate are swaps rather than futures. The case is pending. Three weeks later, the CFTC stayed CME's own self-certified round-the-clock crude oil contract, with Selig calling the exchange's move wholly inappropriate. The largest US derivatives exchange operator litigating against its own regulator is a highly unusual state of affairs, and it continues.

Hyperliquid's side has advanced in parallel. On February 18, 2026, the independent Hyperliquid Policy Center was formally established and has since filed multiple comment letters with the SEC and CFTC. On July 14 it met the SEC's Crypto Task Force to explain the technology and market structure. Together with Phantom and others it petitioned the CFTC on rules for onchain derivatives markets, and with trade[XYZ] it proposed a framework to the SEC for perpetual futures on pre-IPO equities. With the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, Selig has directed staff to work with developers of onchain finance protocols on how they might legally offer their technology in the US — an administrative route that does not wait for legislation.

Fees Up 31%, Revenue Down 43%

What management should focus on, however, is not the political tailwind but the business itself. According to 21Shares, Hyperliquid's gross fees in the first half of 2026 rose 31% year on year to $419.3 million, and average daily users nearly doubled. Activity is at record levels. Yet gross protocol revenue has fallen for four consecutive quarters — from a peak of roughly $357 million in the third quarter of 2025 to about $295 million, then roughly $217 million, and about $202 million in the second quarter of 2026. That is a 43% decline from the peak.

The cause is clear. Builder-deployed markets under HIP-3, which accounted for about 2% of perpetual volume at the start of 2026, now make up roughly half. The centre of gravity is real-world asset perpetuals from trade[XYZ]. In the week of July 13 to 19, RWA perpetuals were roughly 52% of weekly volume, some $25 billion, the first week tokenised assets led all categories. In July, RWA perpetual volume reached 99.2% of bitcoin perpetual volume, and RWA open interest set a record $3.6 billion, overtaking bitcoin as the platform's largest market by open interest. Total open interest hit a record near $11 billion on July 13, representing roughly 9% of global perpetual positions.

The problem is that in builder-deployed markets, a substantial portion of fees flows back to the builder. Volume can grow while the protocol's cut thins. And most of Hyperliquid's revenue is directed into buying back HYPE through the Assistance Fund. DefiLlama shows $45.26 million in perpetual fees over the trailing 30 days, of which $31.56 million was protocol revenue. As the buyback pool shrinks, the value support beneath HYPE weakens. Meanwhile roughly 238 million tokens allocated to the founding team and contributors vest on a straight line over 24 months from early 2026. The absence of venture capital means there is no early-investor cliff — a genuine strength — but the overlap of rising supply and a shrinking buyback remains.

Onshoring Means the End of Regulatory Arbitrage

This reframes what US entry actually means. Hyperliquid currently treats US residents and US-formed entities as restricted persons and offers a trading environment without identity verification. Offering perpetual futures in the US would require CFTC registration plus compliance with customer protection, market surveillance and asset segregation requirements. Onshoring therefore means giving up part of the very design — instant, open access — that drove the growth. That is precisely what CME and ICE targeted, and compliance implies a shift in the cost structure.

At the same time, competition inside the US perimeter already exists. Since May 29 the CFTC has opened the door for registered exchanges to offer perpetuals, with Kalshi and Coinbase moving first. By the time Hyperliquid enters the regulated perimeter, competition inside it will already be under way. The access to the US market that the market has priced in is simultaneously the disappearance of a regulatory arbitrage.

[Business Development Insights]

  1. Evaluating trading volume separately from protocol revenue is now essential for judging onchain finance businesses. Hyperliquid posted a 31% rise in fees and a near-doubling of users in the first half while revenue fell 43% from its peak. The cause was a structural shift: opening market creation to external builders sends a substantial share of fees outside the protocol. In traditional exchange terms, this resembles an exchange opening its own order book to third parties and sharing the fee. Judging business health from volume growth alone misses the change in revenue structure. Institutions assessing onchain protocols need a process that tracks gross fees, the protocol's own share, and the amount passed through externally as three separate lines.
  2. Moving inside the regulatory perimeter is not automatically value-accretive. Hyperliquid's growth rested on instant access without identity verification and continuous operation — features that existed because it sat outside regulation. Obtaining CFTC registration means absorbing the added cost of customer protection, market surveillance and segregation, while simultaneously surrendering the barrier to entry that being outside regulation itself provided. When Japanese financial institutions consider partnership or investment in onchain trading venues, they must determine whether the target's competitive advantage derives from regulatory arbitrage. Advantages of that origin dissipate as regulatory frameworks mature.
  3. The conflict between incumbent exchanges and the regulator itself defines both the opportunity and the timeline. CME suing its own regulator, and the CFTC staying CME's self-certified contract, show that the contest over market structure has moved into the courts. The outcome — whether contracts carrying a funding rate are swaps or futures — will determine the regulatory framework for the entire perpetual futures product category. Any Japanese effort to develop comparable products should expect the US precedent to become a de facto international standard, which makes deferring large investment commitments until judgment a defensible position. Conversely, the period around that ruling is when the regulatory environment moves most, and securing a seat at the table for framework design during that window carries high value.

[Sources]

Supervisor

Akihisa Ishida

Cabinet Inc. Founder CEO

Since 2017, He has been consistently engaged in token and NFT utilization, blockchain game planning and development, and NFT-based business development. Having contributed to over 80 blockchain products—including projects for major entertainment companies listed in Tokyo Stock Exchange —He has served in various key roles such as Business Lead, Designer, PM, and Advisor. In 2021, founded Cabinet Inc.

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes regarding crypto assets and related markets, and is not intended to recommend, solicit, or offer the purchase, sale, holding, or any other transaction of any specific crypto asset. It does not constitute investment advice, investment solicitation, or the sale or intermediation of financial products as defined under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act or any other applicable laws and regulations, nor does it constitute tax, legal, or accounting advice.

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